Reflexão sobre o aumento do Défice do Estado e suas implicações no Financiamento ao Sector Privado em Moçambique

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A crise económica e financeira que assola a economia moçambicana desde a primavera de 2016 que surge na sequência da divulgação de dívidas ilícitas contraídas por empresas públicas, tem estado na origem da tendência crescente do défice orçamental do estado moçambicano e da necessidade de promover a consolidação fiscal por via de medidas de austeridade orçamental e aumento das taxas tributárias. Esta tendência crescente do défice é essencialmente explicada pelo aumento do serviço de dívida destes empréstimos que tem sido sucessivamente agravado pela subida das taxas de juros internacionais.
Para o financiamento do défice o estado moçambicano recorre essencialmente a dívida interna uma vez que o apoio directo ao orçamento do estado que vinha sendo garantido pelos doadores externos foi temporariamente suspenso, e os investidores externos têm tido receio em investir no país por conta do elevado risco associado a instabilidade das principais variáveis de performance da economia moçambicana.
De acordo com a teoria económica, um aumento do défice público financiado com recurso a dívida interna pode afectar o financiamento a economia e desestimular o crescimento do sector privado. Este fenómeno é conhecido como efeito Crowding Out ou efeito deslocamento dos gastos públicos que ocorre quando o aumento do défice público financiado através da dívida interna resulta na subida da taxa de juros e redução do crédito ao sector privado.
No caso de Moçambique, entre 2016 e 2018 o défice orçamental cresceu em 15% de 69.6 Biliões de Meticais em 2016 para cerca de 80 Biliões de Meticais conforme o OE de 2018. Ao longo do mesmo período (2016-2018), a taxa de juros activa para empréstimos de médio prazo (maturidade até 2 anos) aumentou em 7.31pp de 19.41% em Janeiro de 2016 para 26.72% em Abril de 2018.
Portanto, este cenário sinaliza a verificação do efeito Crowding Out, uma vez que desde Outubro de 2016 a parcela de crédito destinada ao governo tende a aumentar e a parcela de crédito destinada ao sector privado tende a reduzir conforme ilustra o gráfico 1.

Gráfico 1: Evolução do peso do crédito ao governo e ao sector privado no crédito a economia

Fonte: Adaptado pelo autor com base em dados do Banco de Moçambique

A principal implicação desta situação reside no facto de que se o governo continua absorvendo de forma progressiva a parcela de crédito que deveria ser concedida ao sector privado, o investimento das empresas tenderá a reduzir o que irá influir adversamente sobre o crescimento da economia a médio e longo prazo.
Portanto, é importante que o governo tenha em atenção este cenário na estruturação das fontes de financiamento do OE, dado que se cresce o obstáculo de financiamento ao sector privado, as empresas não crescem e se as empresas não crescem não poderão pagar impostos, o que terá implicações negativas na prossecução do objectivo de consolidação fiscal bem como de sustentabilidade da economia.
Neste âmbito, recomenda-se que o Banco de Moçambique fortaleça as suas linhas de intervenção através de uma política monetária mais expansiva ou adopção de medidas directas de racionamento de crédito ao sector privado. A redução das taxas directoras não é suficiente uma vez que a pesar desta redução não se reflectir imediatamente e na dimensão correspondente nas taxas de juros de crédito a economia, as empresas não dispõem de colaterais de risco equiparável aos títulos públicos para competir com o governo na obtenção de financiamento junto a banca comercial.

Por: Roque Francisco Magaia

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